Group F · NRG Stadium, Houston · 2026-06-20 · 🏟️ 13:00 – ~14:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Pre-match: fair consensus of 27 sportsbooks (2026-06-12 18:31Z)
Full-time recap
Tunisia
JapanWin likelihood as the game unfolds
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Final-score race
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (NED blue, draws gray, SWE amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Danger Share
Cumulative danger share from shots on target, shots, and possession. Above 50% = Netherlands generating more threat; below 50% = Sweden. Updated every ~30s.
Match timeline
NED events above the line, SWE below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Live match stats
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Most likely final scores
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is the single most likely scoreline — even the top pick lands roughly 1 game in 7, so treat the full spread as the real forecast.
Match facts
Why this prediction
The betting market makes Netherlands the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say Netherlands 60%, draw 23%, Sweden 17%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 1.8 goals for Netherlands and 0.9 for Sweden. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of -1.0 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
Roofed/climate-controlled stadium — outside conditions (30°C) don't apply.
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-07-28T17:00:46+00:00
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