Group stage · expected points · projected knockouts
Who's stressin'?
Groups — expected points
Group A odds history →
| 1 |  Mexico |
😌 | 9.00 |
| 2 |  South Africa |
😌 | 4.00 |
| 3 |  South Korea |
🚨 | 3.00 |
| 4 |  Czechia |
🚨 | 1.00 |
Group B odds history →
| 1 |  Switzerland |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Canada |
😌 | 4.00 |
| 3 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Qatar |
🚨 | 1.00 |
Group C odds history →
| 1 |  Brazil |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Morocco |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 3 |  Scotland |
🚨 | 3.00 |
| 4 |  Haiti |
🚨 | 0.00 |
Group D odds history →
| 1 |  United States |
😌 | 6.00 |
| 2 |  Australia |
😌 | 4.00 |
| 3 |  Paraguay |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Türkiye |
🚨 | 3.00 |
Group E odds history →
| 1 |  Germany |
😌 | 6.00 |
| 2 |  Ivory Coast |
😌 | 6.00 |
| 3 |  Ecuador |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Curaçao |
🚨 | 1.00 |
Group F odds history →
| 1 |  Netherlands |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Japan |
😌 | 5.00 |
| 3 |  Sweden |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Tunisia |
🚨 | 0.00 |
Group G odds history →
| 1 |  Belgium |
😌 | 5.00 |
| 2 |  Egypt |
😌 | 5.00 |
| 3 |  Iran |
🚨 | 3.00 |
| 4 |  New Zealand |
🚨 | 1.00 |
Group H odds history →
| 1 |  Spain |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Cape Verde |
😌 | 3.00 |
| 3 |  Uruguay |
🚨 | 2.00 |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia |
🚨 | 2.00 |
Group I odds history →
| 1 |  France |
😌 | 9.00 |
| 2 |  Norway |
😌 | 6.00 |
| 3 |  Senegal |
😬 | 3.00 |
| 4 |  Iraq |
🚨 | 0.00 |
Group J odds history →
| 1 |  Argentina |
😌 | 9.00 |
| 2 |  Austria |
😌 | 4.00 |
| 3 |  Algeria |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Jordan |
🚨 | 0.00 |
Group K odds history →
| 1 |  Colombia |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Portugal |
😌 | 5.00 |
| 3 |  Congo DR |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Uzbekistan |
🚨 | 0.00 |
Group L odds history →
| 1 |  England |
😌 | 7.00 |
| 2 |  Croatia |
😌 | 6.00 |
| 3 |  Ghana |
😬 | 4.00 |
| 4 |  Panama |
🚨 | 0.00 |
😌 cruising · 😬 sweating · 🚨 full panic — stress tracks the live projections and updates as results come in. green top two · amber best-third qualifier · xPts = Σ 3·P(win) + P(draw) over the three group games — market odds where posted, FIFA-rank model otherwise.
Projected knockout bracket
Most-likely path: each tie advances the higher-probability side. 90-minute draws resolve realistically — half in extra time (favorite's edge compressed), half on penalties (a coin flip). Third-place slotting is one legal permutation of FIFA's allocation rules. Until knockout odds post, advancement leans on the rank model.
Round of 32
RSA🚨30 CAN😌70SoFi Stadium
GER😌69 SWE🚨31Gillette Stadium
NED😬54 MAR😬46Estadio BBVA
BRA😌57 JPN😬43NRG Stadium
FRA😌74 PAR🚨26MetLife Stadium
CIV😬49 NOR😬51AT&T Stadium
MEX😌57 ECU😬43Estadio Banorte
ENG😌76 COD🚨24Mercedes-Benz Stadium
USA😌78 BIH🚨22Levi's Stadium
BEL😌63 ALG😬37Lumen Field
POR😬54 CRO😬46BMO Field
ESP😌65 AUT😬35SoFi Stadium
SUI😬47 SEN😬53BC Place
ARG😌84 CPV🚨16Hard Rock Stadium
COL😌83 GHA🚨17GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
AUS😬51 EGY😬49AT&T Stadium
Round of 16
GER😬46 FRA😬54Lincoln Financial Field
CAN😬35 NED😌65NRG Stadium
BRA😬54 NOR😬46MetLife Stadium
MEX😬41 ENG😌59Estadio Banorte
POR😬48 ESP😬52AT&T Stadium
USA😬47 BEL😬53Lumen Field
ARG😌68 AUS🚨32Mercedes-Benz Stadium
SEN😬49 COL😬51BC Place
Quarterfinals
FRA😌55 NED😬45Gillette Stadium
ESP😌57 BEL😬43SoFi Stadium
BRA😬49 ENG😬51Hard Rock Stadium
ARG😌55 COL😬45GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Semifinals
FRA😬50 ESP😬50AT&T Stadium
ENG😬51 ARG😬49Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Final
ESP😬51 ENG😬49MetLife Stadium
Champion
SpainDevigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-08-30T17:00:45+00:00
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