Group stage · expected points · projected knockouts

Who's stressin'?

Groups — expected points

Group A odds history →

1	Mexico	😌	6.62
2	South Korea	😌	6.04
3	Czechia	🚨	2.77
4	South Africa	🚨	1.55

Group B odds history →

1	Switzerland	😌	4.75
2	Canada	😌	4.56
3	Bosnia-Herzegovina	😬	3.78
4	Qatar	🚨	2.03

Group C odds history →

1	Brazil	😌	6.00
2	Morocco	😌	5.38
3	Scotland	😬	4.38
4	Haiti	🚨	0.57

Group D odds history →

1	United States	😌	6.50
2	Australia	😌	4.82
3	Türkiye	😬	3.01
4	Paraguay	🚨	2.62

Group E odds history →

1	Germany	😌	7.04
2	Ivory Coast	😌	6.38
3	Ecuador	😬	3.59
4	Curaçao	🚨	0.37

Group F odds history →

1	Netherlands	😌	5.35
2	Sweden	😌	4.87
3	Japan	😬	4.80
4	Tunisia	🚨	1.08

Group G odds history →

1	Belgium	😌	5.75
2	Egypt	😌	4.53
3	Iran	🚨	2.60
4	New Zealand	🚨	2.22

Group H odds history →

1	Spain	😌	5.79
2	Uruguay	😌	3.97
3	Cape Verde	😬	3.00
4	Saudi Arabia	🚨	2.48

Group I odds history →

1	France	😌	6.82
2	Norway	😌	5.14
3	Senegal	😬	3.97
4	Iraq	🚨	0.95

Group J odds history →

1	Argentina	😌	6.96
2	Austria	😌	4.72
3	Algeria	😬	3.74
4	Jordan	🚨	1.35

Group K odds history →

1	Portugal	😌	6.61
2	Colombia	😌	5.64
3	Congo DR	🚨	2.47
4	Uzbekistan	🚨	2.02

Group L odds history →

1	England	😌	6.82
2	Croatia	😌	4.94
3	Ghana	🚨	2.78
4	Panama	🚨	2.15

😌 cruising · 😬 sweating · 🚨 full panic — stress tracks the live projections and updates as results come in. green top two · amber best-third qualifier · xPts = Σ 3·P(win) + P(draw) over the three group games — market odds where posted, FIFA-rank model otherwise.

Projected knockout bracket

Most-likely path: each tie advances the higher-probability side. 90-minute draws resolve realistically — half in extra time (favorite's edge compressed), half on penalties (a coin flip). Third-place slotting is one legal permutation of FIFA's allocation rules. Until knockout odds post, advancement leans on the rank model.

Round of 32

KOR😬54

CAN😬46

2026-06-28 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

GER😌55

JPN😬45

2026-06-29 · 16:30 ET
Gillette Stadium

NED😬54

MAR😬46

2026-06-29 · 21:00 ET
Estadio BBVA

BRA😌71

SWE🚨29

2026-06-29 · 13:00 ET
NRG Stadium

FRA😌75

SCO🚨25

2026-06-30 · 17:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

CIV😬49

NOR😬51

2026-06-30 · 13:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

MEX😬51

SEN😬49

2026-06-30 · 21:00 ET
Estadio Banorte

ENG😌67

ALG🚨33

2026-07-01 · 12:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

USA😌78

BIH🚨22

2026-07-01 · 20:00 ET
Levi's Stadium

BEL😌82

CPV🚨18

2026-07-01 · 16:00 ET
Lumen Field

COL😬49

CRO😬51

2026-07-02 · 19:00 ET
BMO Field

ESP😌65

AUT😬35

2026-07-02 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

SUI😬53

ECU😬47

2026-07-02 · 23:00 ET
BC Place

ARG😌58

URU😬42

2026-07-03 · 18:00 ET
Hard Rock Stadium

POR😌62

TUR😬38

2026-07-03 · 21:30 ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

AUS😬51

EGY😬49

2026-07-03 · 14:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

Round of 16

GER😬46

FRA😬54

2026-07-04 · 17:00 ET
Lincoln Financial Field

KOR😬38

NED😌62

2026-07-04 · 13:00 ET
NRG Stadium

BRA😬54

NOR😬46

2026-07-05 · 16:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

MEX😬41

ENG😌59

2026-07-05 · 20:00 ET
Estadio Banorte

CRO😬43

ESP😌57

2026-07-06 · 15:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

USA😬47

BEL😬53

2026-07-06 · 20:00 ET
Lumen Field

ARG😌68

AUS🚨32

2026-07-07 · 12:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

SUI😬40

POR😌60

2026-07-07 · 16:00 ET
BC Place

Quarterfinals

FRA😌55

NED😬45

2026-07-09 · 16:00 ET
Gillette Stadium

ESP😌57

BEL😬43

2026-07-10 · 15:00 ET
SoFi Stadium

BRA😬49

ENG😬51

2026-07-11 · 17:00 ET
Hard Rock Stadium

ARG😬50

POR😬50

2026-07-11 · 21:00 ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Semifinals

FRA😬50

ESP😬50

2026-07-14 · 15:00 ET
AT&T Stadium

ENG😬51

POR😬49

2026-07-15 · 15:00 ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Final

ESP😬51

ENG😬49

2026-07-19 · 15:00 ET
MetLife Stadium

Champion

★

Spain

Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-06-15T17:00:48+00:00