Group A · Estadio Banorte (Azteca), Mexico City · 2026-06-11 · 🌧️ 15:00 – ~16:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Mexico
Pre-match: sportsbook close (2026-06-11 19:49Z)
Full-time recap
South Korea
CzechiaWin likelihood as the game unfolds
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Final-score race
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (MEX blue, draws gray, RSA amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Danger Share
Cumulative danger share from shots on target, shots, and possession. Above 50% = Mexico generating more threat; below 50% = South Africa. Updated every ~30s.
Match timeline
MEX events above the line, RSA below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Live match stats
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Most likely final scores
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is what Fufuball predicts — even the best pick only lands roughly 1 game in 6, so treat the spread as the real forecast.
Match facts
Why this prediction
The betting market makes Mexico the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say Mexico 68%, draw 21%, South Africa 10%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 1.8 goals for Mexico and 0.6 for South Africa. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of -1.5 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
FIFA rankings: Mexico #14 vs South Africa #60 — Mexico rate higher than South Africa.
Tournament opener, rematch of the 2010 opener (1-1). Mexico unbeaten in 8 in 2026 with 6 clean sheets, beat Serbia 5-1 on Jun 4; Rangel expected in goal (Malagon out, ruptured Achilles), Edson Alvarez back from injury. South Africa winless in 5; altitude camp in Pachuca but Azteca sits at 2,240m with a ~87,500 sellout.
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-06-12T20:01:54+00:00
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