Group F · Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe · 2026-06-21 · 🌧️ 00:00 – ~01:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Pre-match: fair consensus of 28 sportsbooks (2026-06-12 18:31Z)
Full-time recap
Netherlands
SwedenWin likelihood as the game unfolds
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Final-score race
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (TUN blue, draws gray, JPN amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Danger Share
Cumulative danger share from shots on target, shots, and possession. Above 50% = Tunisia generating more threat; below 50% = Japan. Updated every ~30s.
Match timeline
TUN events above the line, JPN below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Live match stats
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Most likely final scores
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is the single most likely scoreline — even the top pick lands roughly 1 game in 7, so treat the full spread as the real forecast.
Match facts
Why this prediction
The betting market makes Japan the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say Tunisia 17%, draw 26%, Japan 57%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 0.8 goals for Tunisia and 1.6 for Japan. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of +0.5 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-08-30T17:00:45+00:00
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