Group E · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford · 2026-06-25 · ☀️ 16:00 – ~17:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Pre-match: fair consensus of 20 sportsbooks (2026-06-12 18:31Z)
Récap fin de match
Probabilité de victoire au fil du match
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Course au score final
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (ECU blue, draws gray, GER amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Danger Share
Cumulative danger share from shots on target, shots, and possession. Above 50% = Ecuador generating more threat; below 50% = Germany. Updated every ~30s.
Chronologie du match
ECU events above the line, GER below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Stats en direct
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Scores finaux les plus probables
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is the single most likely scoreline — even the top pick lands roughly 1 game in 7, so treat the full spread as the real forecast.
Infos sur le match
Pourquoi cette prédiction
The betting market makes Germany the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say Ecuador 19%, draw 25%, Germany 56%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 1.0 goals for Ecuador and 1.5 for Germany. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of +0.8 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
Forecast high heat (29°C) at kickoff — total goals trimmed 5%.
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-08-30T17:00:45+00:00
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