Group I · BMO Field, Toronto · 2026-06-26 · 🌤️ 15:00 – ~16:55 ET (end time is approximate — stoppage time can stretch it)
Pre-match: fair consensus of 20 sportsbooks (2026-06-12 18:31Z)
Full-time recap
Win likelihood as the game unfolds
Each line is the chance of that result given the score and time left, updated every ~30 seconds. X-axis is the game minute.
Final-score race
Each line is one possible final score, labeled at the right edge — colored by who that score favors (SEN blue, draws gray, IRQ amber). Watch a line take off when a goal goes in.
Danger Share
Cumulative danger share from shots on target, shots, and possession. Above 50% = Senegal generating more threat; below 50% = Iraq. Updated every ~30s.
Match timeline
SEN events above the line, IRQ below · ⚽ goal · ⚽P penalty · ❌ miss · yellow / red cards
Live match stats
When one side is creating more — more shots, shots on target and possession — we nudge their remaining scoring pace up and the other's down, so the charts react to how the game is actually being played, not just the scoreline.
Most likely final scores
How often each final score would happen if this game were played many times. Green is the single most likely scoreline — even the top pick lands roughly 1 game in 7, so treat the full spread as the real forecast.
Match facts
Why this prediction
The betting market makes Senegal the favorite: once the bookmaker's built-in profit margin is stripped out, the prices say Senegal 69%, draw 20%, Iraq 11%. Markets like this are historically the most accurate public forecast there is.
We expect a scoring pace of roughly 2.0 goals for Senegal and 0.7 for Iraq. That comes from two more markets: the over/under (how many total goals bettors expect) and the goal handicap of -1.0 (how big a head start the underdog would need to make the game a coin flip).
Devigged sportsbook odds → three-market triangulation → Dixon-Coles scorelines · generated 2026-08-30T17:00:45+00:00
© 2026 futureplease LLC · About · vs the rest · Terms · Privacy · not affiliated with FIFA · not betting advice · 18+